{"daily_changes":[{"change":"64% -> 62%","date":"2026-10-25","item":"Cowboys @ Eagles (Mon)","why":"Barkley expected to play after a full Saturday practice (pushes Dallas down); Landon Dickerson to IR (pushes Dallas up). Net -2, pick unchanged."},{"change":"WIN, 20-17 final","date":"2026-10-25","item":"Lions pick graded","why":"Walk-off Bates field goal after a blocked Packers attempt. Medium tier moves to 4-2."},{"change":"14 early predictions posted","date":"2026-10-25","item":"Week 8 board opened","why":"Future games are now predicted a week out and adjusted daily instead of appearing only the day before."},{"change":"Rule change","date":"2026-10-25","item":"High tier discipline","why":"High went 1-2 Sunday (Texans, Panthers both lost). High now requires verified ball security plus a QB edge; see Method page."}],"lessons":["Danger flags must flip picks, not decorate them (49ers @ Falcons).","High confidence requires verified ball security: the Panthers' High pick died on 4 turnovers.","Sunday inactives (Breece Hall) must reach the pick before kickoff: the morning check has to run on time.","Conditional warnings are part of the pick (Nacua active = Raiders pick weakens materially).","Outgained 420-237 is a model miss, not variance (Texans)."],"record":{"by_tier":{"Coin-flip":"1-1","High":"1-2","Medium":"4-2"},"pending":["Chiefs @ Seahawks (SNF, in progress)","Cowboys @ Eagles (MNF Oct 26)"],"season_decided":"6-5","week7_decided":"6-5"},"site":"nfl.projectmoosed.com","updated_et":"2026-10-25 22:05 ET","week7":[{"game":"Steelers @ Saints (Paris)","grade":"WIN","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET","pick":"Steelers","prob":60,"result":"Steelers 16-10","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Giants @ Texans","grade":"LOSS","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Texans","prob":68,"result":"Giants 27-21 OT","tier":"High"},{"game":"49ers @ Falcons","grade":"LOSS","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"49ers","prob":58,"result":"Falcons 29-20","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Colts @ Vikings","grade":"WIN","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Vikings","prob":70,"result":"Vikings 16-10","tier":"High"},{"game":"Buccaneers @ Panthers","grade":"LOSS","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Panthers","prob":67,"result":"Buccaneers 43-13","tier":"High"},{"game":"Bengals @ Ravens","grade":"WIN","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Bengals","prob":60,"result":"Bengals 35-13","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Browns @ Titans","grade":"WIN","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Browns","prob":52,"result":"Browns 27-24","tier":"Coin-flip"},{"game":"Dolphins @ Jets","grade":"LOSS","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Jets","prob":59,"result":"Dolphins 28-25","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Broncos @ Cardinals","grade":"WIN","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET","pick":"Broncos","prob":61,"result":"Broncos 30-16","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Packers @ Lions","grade":"WIN","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET","pick":"Lions","prob":60,"result":"Lions 20-17","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Rams @ Raiders","grade":"LOSS","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET","pick":"Raiders","prob":51,"result":"Rams 35-21","tier":"Coin-flip"},{"game":"Chiefs @ Seahawks","grade":"PENDING","kickoff":"Sun Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET","pick":"Chiefs","prob":52,"result":"IN PROGRESS (SEA led 10-0 Q3 at last check)","tier":"Coin-flip"},{"game":"Cowboys @ Eagles","grade":"PREDICTION","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial call: Hurts on IR, McKee starts; DeVonta Smith and Wicks out.","prob":64},{"date":"2026-10-25 (evening update)","note":"Barkley expected to play (full Saturday practice) pushed Dallas down; Landon Dickerson placed on IR pushed it back up. Net -2.","prob":62}],"kickoff":"Mon Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET","pick":"Cowboys","prob":62,"projected":"Cowboys 24-20","result":null,"tier":"Medium","total_lean":"Under 44.5"}],"week8_early":[{"game":"Panthers @ Packers","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Panthers off a 43-13 loss with 4 turnovers; Packers short week at Lambeau.","prob":63}],"kickoff":"Thu Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET","pick":"Packers","prob":63,"projected":"Packers 27-20","swing":"Bryce Young ball security; Green Bay kicker Trey Smack (2 misses incl. a block at Detroit).","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Ravens @ Bills","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Bills rested off the bye; Ravens priced on a questionable Lamar.","prob":62}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Bills","prob":62,"projected":"Bills 28-24","swing":"Lamar Jackson's status. If he is out again, Bills rise toward 72; if he is a full go, Bills fall toward 55.","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Titans @ Bengals","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Biggest market favorite of the week (-9.5/-10); Bengals scored 35 unanswered on Baltimore.","prob":78}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Bengals","prob":78,"projected":"Bengals 30-17","swing":"Only a Burrow injury or a Bengals turnover collapse moves this.","tier":"High"},{"game":"Cardinals @ Cowboys","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Highest-total game on the board (52.5); Dallas offense is the best unit in it.","prob":71}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Cowboys","prob":71,"projected":"Cowboys 31-24","swing":"Dallas defense (20+ allowed every game) keeps this off High; Monday night injuries carry over.","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Vikings @ Lions","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call, made the night Detroit beat Green Bay 20-17 on a walk-off field goal.","prob":57}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Lions","prob":57,"projected":"Lions 24-21","swing":"Undefeated Minnesota vs Detroit at home; market leans Lions ~60. Divisional home-field is worth less.","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Colts @ Jaguars","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Market ~77% Jacksonville.","prob":74}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Jaguars","prob":74,"projected":"Jaguars 27-17","swing":"Jacksonville off the bye with a rest edge; Colts' offense managed 10 points at Minnesota.","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Raiders @ Jets","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call, explicitly Hall-dependent. Near pick'em in the market.","prob":53}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Jets","prob":53,"projected":"Jets 20-19","swing":"Breece Hall. He was ruled out Sunday; if he is out again this flips to the Raiders.","tier":"Coin-flip"},{"game":"Browns @ Steelers","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Both teams won ugly in Week 7.","prob":64}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Steelers","prob":64,"projected":"Steelers 23-17","swing":"Cleveland's run game (Judkins) vs Pittsburgh front; divisional familiarity compresses the margin.","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Falcons @ Buccaneers","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Market has it near a pick'em.","prob":55}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET","pick":"Buccaneers","prob":55,"projected":"Buccaneers 26-23","swing":"Two hot teams: Penix threw 3 TDs vs SF; Tampa ran for 258 on Carolina. Home field is the tiebreak.","tier":"Coin-flip"},{"game":"Chargers @ Rams","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Market ~77% Rams.","prob":75}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET","pick":"Rams","prob":75,"projected":"Rams 28-17","swing":"Stafford and Nacua are rolling; the Chargers' injury-depleted roster is the story until proven otherwise.","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Chiefs @ Broncos","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Market Chiefs -1.5 on the road.","prob":54}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET","pick":"Chiefs","prob":54,"projected":"Chiefs 21-20","swing":"Tonight's SNF result and health in Seattle; Denver home altitude; Surtain's status for Denver.","tier":"Coin-flip"},{"game":"Patriots @ Dolphins","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call.","prob":76}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET","pick":"Patriots","prob":76,"projected":"Patriots 27-16","swing":"Miami got its first win but the roster gap is real; market Patriots -8.","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Eagles @ Commanders","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Market Commanders -3.5.","prob":66}],"kickoff":"Sun Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET","pick":"Commanders","prob":66,"projected":"Commanders 24-17","swing":"Hurts' IR status vs a rested Washington team off the bye; Philly also plays Monday night (short week).","tier":"Medium"},{"game":"Bears @ Seahawks","history":[{"date":"2026-10-25","note":"Initial early call. Market ~60% Seattle.","prob":59}],"kickoff":"Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET","pick":"Seahawks","prob":59,"projected":"Seahawks 24-20","swing":"Chicago has 10 days' rest after a Thursday win; Seattle at Lumen is the counterweight.","tier":"Medium"}]}