Project Moosed

🏈 Moose NFL Predictions

Every game predicted. Every game audited from the play-by-play. Every prediction adjusted daily — and every change explained.

How this site works: future games get an early prediction as soon as the week opens. That prediction is then adjusted daily as injuries, inactives, weather and lines move — each adjustment is logged below with the reason. The day before each game day the full report locks the slate. After every game, the play-by-play is audited against the prediction and graded in public. Last updated: Sun Oct 25, 2026, 10:05 PM ET.

Season record (decided)

6–5

Week 7 Sunday slate. Two games still open (below).

High confidence

1–2

The problem tier. New discipline on the Method page.

Medium confidence

4–2

The tier carrying the season so far.

Coin-flips

1–1

Labeled honestly — and graded the same way.

On the clock

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks — IN PROGRESS

Sunday Night Football · Lumen Field · Pick made Sat Oct 24

Pick: Chiefs 52% Coin-flip

Seattle led 10–0 in the 3rd quarter at the last check — Mahomes picked off once, Butker short on a 58-yarder at the half. This pick is in trouble and the full play-by-play audit will say exactly why when it ends. No editing the pick after the fact: it stands as made.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles — Monday Night Football

Mon Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · ESPN/ABC · Spread DAL −4.5 · Total 44.5

Pick: Dallas Cowboys 62% Medium · Projected: Cowboys 24, Eagles 20 · Total lean: Under 44.5

The breakdown

Quarterback decides it. Dak Prescott is healthy (1,639 yards, 10 TD, 5 INT) throwing to CeeDee Lamb (48 rec, 577 yards, 4 TD) and George Pickens. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve; Tanner McKee makes his second start of 2026 (26/45, 215 yards, 1 TD in his last appearance). A starter-vs-replacement gap like this is worth roughly 8–12 points — it is the whole handicap.

Efficiency: Dallas owns the best unit in the game (offense, 8th in EPA/play). Philadelphia's offense is 31st in EPA/play and 30th in success rate, scoring 17.7 a game — 14.5 during its four-game skid. Philadelphia's defense is better than Dallas's (the Cowboys are 31st in EPA/play allowed and have given up 20+ in all six games), which is why this is a 4-point projection and not a rout.

Availability: Philadelphia is missing DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks (both out) at receiver and Nolan Smith on defense. Dallas's out-list is short — Turpin, Winters, Shelton — and Overshown returns.

Weather: Clear, low around 51°, NW wind ~6 mph, 10% rain. A non-factor, verified twice.

What changed from the first call (64% → 62%)

Saquon Barkley practiced in full Saturday and is expected to play after missing two games — that pushed Dallas down. Then Philadelphia placed left guard Landon Dickerson on IR — a real hole in front of a backup quarterback — which pushed Dallas back up. Net: −2 points of probability, pick unchanged. Barkley's snap load is the Monday watch item.

The risk case

Dallas is 2–4, on its third straight primetime game, with a near-bottom run game and a defense that leaks. If Barkley is a full workload and Dallas turns it over, Philadelphia wins a one-score game at home. Dallas to win is the pick; Dallas to cover −4.5 is much shakier.

What changed today — Sun Oct 25

ItemChangeWhy
Cowboys @ Eagles (Mon)64% → 62%Barkley expected to play (down) offset by Dickerson to IR (up). Pick unchanged.
Lions pick gradedWIN, 20–17Walk-off Bates FG after a blocked Packers attempt. Medium tier to 4–2.
Week 8 board14 early predictions postedFuture games now predicted a week out and adjusted daily — see Week 8.
High tierRule tightenedHigh went 1–2 (Texans, Panthers). High now requires verified ball security plus a QB edge.

This week's cadence